Although April and May are the months in which the great auction houses put on sale some of the rarest timepieces ever, seeing wealthy collectors compete upwards to win them, in this period there has often been talk of a turnaround on the market of the watches.
In fact, many aficionados have spoken of a collapse in the prices of some watches on the secondary market, referring in particular to the most popular models of Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet.
But are these rumors well founded?
Today we at IWS will try to shed some light, updating you on the price trends of some of the most popular models and trying to understand if this apparent collapse in the prices of timepieces on the watch market is real or not.
Rolex Oyster Perpetual with Tiffany dial
One of the most talked about watches is the Rolex Oyster Perpetual with Tiffany dial, whose price on the secondary market has actually dropped in the last period.
After passing the € 30,000 mark last January (in addition to 400% of the list price at authorized dealers), the price of the Rolex Oyster Perpetual 36mm with the Tiffany turquoise dial has undergone a slight reversal and now, according to what is reported since Chrono24, the market value of the Tiffany-colored crowned timepiece has been below that threshold.
Considering the same model of the crowned house but in a larger version, the price on the secondary market had exceeded the threshold of € 60,000, while now, according to the offers that can be observed on Chrono24, the price is approximately € 40,000. However, what caused the enthusiastic public to discuss the most is the fact that this negative variation occurred despite this model having officially gone out of production, removed from its Rolex catalog during the past edition of Watches & Wonders.
However, as you may have guessed, we cannot speak of a real collapse in the price of this particular reference as the price of this model remains well above what its list price would have been.
Are Gerald Genta’s icons going out of fashion?
Two other watches that seem to be the victims of a slight turnaround on the secondary market are the most iconic of watches, children of the pen of Master Gerald Genta: the Nautilus by Patek Philippe and the Royal Oak by Audemars Piguet.
As WatchAnalytics reported on April 18, the prices of the Nautilus 5711 and Royal Oak 15202 have dropped by an average of 7.3% compared to their respective value which was recorded in March on the secondary market. Starting from that date, the prices of the same references then fell further, losing respectively 18% and 16% of the value recorded at the beginning of April.
But that’s not all, if in fact the price reduction for the most desired of Patek Philippe’s references has been relatively contained, other references of the same model have seen their price drop more significantly. For example, the price of the Nautilus 5711 / 1A with a steel case and green dial fell by around 21% over the same period.
What is behind this trend reversal?
As we have explained in other articles, it is extremely complex to trace the factors that determine the price trend of timepieces on the secondary market. In fact, these factors are many and do not always influence the price of timepieces in the same way.
To give it a try and try to explain what is behind this trend reversal, we can make some considerations based on some objective data.
An aspect that certainly may have affected the price trend of watches on the secondary market is represented by the most difficult economic conditions in recent months. After strong economic growth was recorded in the second half of 2021, this first half of 2022 was sadly characterized by adverse events, which unfortunately are having and will have a negative effect on people’s lives and their ability to shop.
Faced with the risk of a recession, superfluous goods such as luxury items are the first to pay and timepieces obviously fall into this category.
New releases may also have influenced the price of watches on the secondary market. As we have explained to you in the past, the price of an asset on the market is often determined by the interaction of supply and demand.
In the case of watches, the attention of the public (and therefore the demand) towards some timepieces can be influenced by the launches that watchmaking houses periodically introduce to the market, creating fashions and new trends. When this occurs, the demand for a specific timepiece decreases and consequently the price of the same moves accordingly, reducing to compensate for the lower demand.
So the “bubble” has actually burst?
As much as it is a sensation that after years of uninterrupted growth the value of timepieces such as the Nautilus or the Royal Oak has returned to the secondary market, we must not generalize this trend.
In fact, it is possible to observe how the value of other timepieces is continuing to grow. To give you an example, as Watchanalytics reported, in the last year the prices of Vacheron Constantin’s Overseas have more than tripled, showing a steeper growth in the last months of this 2022. This trend confirms the fact that demand may have arisen. moved elsewhere, towards watches that until now have been less appreciated by the market. Furthermore, it should be remembered that at the latest edition of Watches & Wonders, Vacheron Constantin released two new references for the Overseas line.
One timepiece that experienced an immediate exponential growth in its value was the new GMT Master II with green and black bezel, whose secondary market value has already risen to around € 60,000, almost 5 times higher than its list price. .
Finally, even looking at the results recorded recently at auctions organized by the big houses, it is possible to see how the watch market is still extremely active and lively.
Conclusions
To conclude, we cannot say that the price of watches on the secondary market is collapsing or that the much-mentioned “bubble” has burst. What we are seeing is a correction in the market itself.
This is a correction because the price of some timepieces, such as the Nautilus or the Royal Oak, was previously very high (perhaps too much), inflated by a demand that over time seems to have turned to other models, now more popular and desired.
However, it will be interesting to understand how the prices of timepieces on the secondary market will change in the future, also in consideration of factors not strictly linked to the demand of enthusiasts and to the new models released by watchmakers.
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