The Swiss watch industry appears less noisy in 2025 than in the years immediately following the pandemic. Numbers from the Morgan Stanley × LuxeConsult Swiss Watch Industry Report tell of an industry experiencing its second consecutive year of contraction, with exports down 1.7 percent in value and a global retail market stabilizing around 49 billion francs. It is a measured slowdown, devoid of sudden shocks, suggesting an adjustment phase rather than a crisis. And it is precisely this apparent normalcy that makes the current moment particularly interesting to observe.
The feeling is that watchmaking is gradually moving away from the obsession with quantitative growth that characterized the past decade. China’s slowdown, with a further 9 percent decline in 2025 and an overall reduction of about 40 percent from 2012 levels, contributes to this shift in outlook. The United States, while remaining the top end market, is also showing more selective and less expansive demand. In this context, the industry seems to be questioning less about how much to grow and much more about who gets to grow and why.
Concentration as an outcome, not an anomaly
One of the most relevant figures in 2025 concerns the distribution of value. With more than 450 active Swiss brands, four names Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet, and Omega now control more than 55 percent of the global market. This concentration tends to increase year after year and can no longer be interpreted as merely a temporary imbalance.
Rather, it is the natural outcome of an industry that increasingly rewards brand strength, consistent positioning, and the ability to sustain high prices over time. The brands that dominate the market are those that have transformed the watch from a technical object to a cultural reference, reducing product substitutability and making consumer choice less and less comparable.
Rolex, the “compass” of the industry
Within this dynamic, Rolex continues to serve as a “compass” for the entire industry. By 2025, the brand exceeds 11 billion francs in wholesale sales and achieves a 32.9 percent market share, a size that makes it, in effect, an industry within an industry.
Volumes are around 1.15 million pieces, down slightly, while the average price is over 14,000 francs thanks to an increase of about 6 percent. Beyond the figures, what is striking is the consistency of the model. Rolex seems to operate outside of short-term fluctuations, with a strategy that favors continuity, control, and recognition. In a more uncertain environment, this stability becomes a crucial competitive advantage.
Audemars Piguet and the value of focus
The year 2025 marks a symbolic transition with Audemars Piguet overtaking Omega in the ranking by sales. With 2.6 billion francs and 9 percent growth, Audemars Piguet demonstrates how a model based on extremely low volumes can be particularly effective.
Production remains around 53,000 pieces and the average price exceeds 51,000 francs. Royal Oak continues to account for about 88 percent of sales, a level of concentration that reflects a precise strategic choice. In a market saturated with novelties and parallel collections, focusing on an icon allows for strengthening brand identity and reducing narrative dispersion.
Omega and the complexity of the mid-range
For Omega, 2025 confirms a more complex phase. Sales fall to 2.2 billion francs and volumes shrink to about 460,000 pieces. Market share stands at 6.4 percent, down from the 9 percent recorded in 2017.
These figures do not point to a loss of brand relevance in an absolute sense, but rather to the structural difficulties of the mid-to-high end. It is an area of the market that is increasingly compressed between affordability and ultra-luxury, where sustaining growth and margins requires an increasingly clear positioning clarity. Omega remains a solid and recognizable brand, but it is moving into a particularly crowded competitive space.
Profits and business models
The polarization emerges even more clearly when looking at profitability. Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille control just under half of the global market, intercepting about 76 percent of total profits, with operating margins around 33 percent.
Large listed groups such as Swatch Group, Richemont, and LVMH show lower profitability. This difference reflects more complex structures, greater exposure to volume, and less flexibility in supply management.
By 2025, only six Swiss brands will exceed 1 billion francs in sales: Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, Omega, and Richard Mille. Together they account for 64 percent of the global retail market. Longines’ exit from this group, with sales down to 920 million francs, underscores how far the threshold to the top of the industry has risen.
An open look at the future
Viewed as a whole, the Swiss watch industry of 2025 appears to be more compact, more selective, and less indulgent. Value is concentrated where there are strong identities, consistent models, and a clear relationship with the public. For consumers, this means a perhaps narrower but also more readable offering. For brands, it implies increasingly clear-cut choices that are difficult to defer.
It is a stage of maturity that does not reward ambiguity. Those who can precisely define their role continue to strengthen themselves. Others are called upon to rethink their space in a sector that has stopped growing out of inertia and now demands, first and foremost, vision and discipline.
All figures present are estimates from the Morgan Stanley x LuxeConsult Swiss Watch Industry Report. Most Swiss brands do not publish their financial statements, so these figures represent the best approximations available, not absolute certainties.
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